NBA Basketball
9:00 PM EST
Rotation #709-710
Cavs +9 (2 units)
Cavs ML +280 (3 units)
Lebron O34.5 -130 (1 unit)
This Golden State team isn’t nearly as mentally tough or physically as tough as people make them out to be. This is a team who I don’t think knows how to close (1-4 vs. Cavs in closeout games) and if you can set the tone early and let them know they aren’t going to be able to run you over early, good things can start happening like we saw last game. The Cavs have been playing better every game, especially on the defensive side where they have been a lot cleaner and making fewer mistakes. You really can’t simulate how the Warriors play in practice so it’s taken them time to learn how to contest their shots and knowing when to switch and not to switch. Golden State relies so much on the three that when they are off like last game (11 for 39) they aren’t going to have a tough time scoring enough points to beat this Cavs team who have Lebron and Kyrie who are going to combine for 70+ a game. The three ball is the first shot to start to go when nerves kick in and all of the pressure in the world is on the Warriors this game. Curry and Thompson’s legs are starting to look a little heavy and I wouldn’t be surprised if they struggle again tonight. The collapse talks have already begun and they already said they view this game being as important as Game 7 because if they lose this and have to go back to Cleveland only up 1 game, look out. If Cavs jump out to an early lead, it is going to be very interesting to see how these Warriors react (my prediction is not well).

Even though Cavs were ultimately blown out in the first two games they were right there only down three at half in game 2 until Lebron inexplicably only took six shots in the second half. Lebron can’t disappear again in the second half like he did in Game 1 and Game 2, but with it all on the line, there’s no way we see that passive of a Lebron again.

Cleveland imposed their will last game and finally got their confidence going in what could have been the turning points in this series and I think that carries over to this game. The Cavs have been here before last year and won two games in Oakland in this same exact scenario after getting smoked in the first two. KD or no KD, I love them to win this game and extend this series. Look for the Big 3 of Cleveland to combine for 90+ again with Lebron keeping them in it with his best game of the finals yet (40+ points) and Kyrie finishing it at the end to force a Game 6. Like I said before last game, call me crazy, I still think Cavs take this series, am extremely confident they win this game and am rolling over my bet from last game to get into the green for these finals.  Take the Cavs spread, ML, and Bron over.

NBA Basketball
9:00 PM EST
Rotation #707-708
Cavs ML over Warriors (3u)
Maybe I am delusional and this will go down as an all time terrible call thinking the Cavs had any chance this series but all it takes is one win from Cleveland to get people talking and for some small hope to be talked about over the weekend. The Cavs had it last game until one of the worst finishes ever where they went 0-8 in the last 3:10 and lost a game they never should have lost. I expect Cleveland to finish stronger tonight and to get themselves at least one win in this series.  Take the Cavs.

NBA Basketball
8:00 PM EST
Rotation #703-704
Cavs +9 over Warriors (3u)
The Warriors made the Cavs look silly in the first game as they scored at will in the paint, but ultimately they just did what they were supposed to do in defending their home court. The Cavs played about as bad as they possibly could have with 20 turnovers and only 4 combined points between Tristan Thompson, Deron Williams, Kyle Korver, and JR Smith. That was a recipe for disaster and about worst case scenario. Everyone is overreacting over one game, but one game doesn’t mean anything. Cleveland is going to have to slow down the pace and use muscle to win this series and they know this. They will adjust and not play nearly as sloppy in game 2. The line jumped two points which is a huge overreaction to one bad game. The Warriors came out a little hungrier, had a little more pep in the their step and the Cavs were lethargic. I’m not going to overreact and be a prisoner of the moment. I think the Cavs come out with an adjusted game plan and have a much better game game 2. Now is the time to hit the future one more time (+475 is tremendous value) because I think the Cavs win this game and this series will be back and forth the rest of the way. Even if they lose, it still doesn’t matter because a series doesn’t start until the home team loses. Cavs were expected to lose the first two games so if they can steal one of the first two on the road it’s a huge bonus. If the Cavs go down 0-2, going home to Game 3 in Cleveland will be the biggest play of the year. That said, as long as they cut down on the turnovers tonight I see them covering this number easily and will have a great shot to steal this one outright as well (sprinkle). Take the Cavs.

NBA Basketball
9:00 PM EST
Rotation #701-702
Cavs +7.5 over Warriors (2u)
The NBA needs to address the length of this layoff in the future because this 10 day break has just been awful. I think it is safe to say nobody has much of a clue how this series is going to start out with both teams resting for so long but I have to think it favors the Cavs. The Warriors are definitely motivated and would love nothing more than to sweep the Cavs, but 7.5 points is too many points for them to be laying in a game that the Cavs can easily win outright. Lebron has a history of stealing on of the first two games on the road and when he has extended rest he takes his game to another level. Just because I like the Cavs to win the series doesn’t mean we will be taking them every game but this is a lot of points to give a Cavs team who has the best player in the series and is one of maybe two teams who can shoot with the Warriors. The Cavs have won 6 of their last 10 outright as dogs and I think they have a great chance to steal game 1. This should be a high scoring game that comes down to the wire either way. Take the Cavs.