Patriots +5 over Seahawks - Super Bowl LX

The matchup on paper is fairly clear. Seattle has the better defense, New England has the better offense, but both teams are strong in all phases. What stands out to me is that the Seahawks made it here with the least experienced offensive line in the NFL. That's impressive, but it's also a glaring weakness the Patriots can attack.

New England faced the softest schedule in the league during the regular season, which led to plenty of skepticism. But once the playoffs started, they did something unprecedented - they became the first team in NFL history to knock off three top-5 defenses in a single postseason. That's not a fluke. This team elevates when the competition gets stiffer.

The X-factor for me is Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. He's been scheming on this stage for over a decade, and I trust him to have answers for Seattle's defense. Drake Maye isn't Tom Brady, but he completed over 70% of his passes this season and has legitimate weapons around him. More importantly, Maye can move outside the pocket, which creates chaos for defenses trying to contain him.

New England's backfield duo of Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson is underrated. Seattle does have the best running back on the field in Kenneth Walker, but with Zach Charbonnet out, the Patriots can sell out to stop Walker without worrying about a quality backup gashing them.

Sam Darnold has played well in the playoffs, but every single one of those games was at home. He's also immobile, which gives New England's defense a significant advantage. The public is all over Seattle because they've looked dominant in the postseason, but they've also faced subpar defenses. That changes tonight.

Here's what I know from years of betting Super Bowls: you cannot lay more than a field goal in this game. It doesn't matter how dominant one team looked getting here. The Super Bowl is different. The gap always tightens, especially between two teams that haven't been on this stage recently.

I also don't trust Sam Darnold as a quarterback I want to lay 4.5 points with against a competent defense. Drake Maye is the better quarterback here, and he's getting points.

But beyond the matchup analysis, the historical trend is overwhelming. Underdogs are 5-0 straight up in the last five Super Bowls. They're 14-4 ATS in the last 19 and 18-6 ATS in the last 25 years. When you narrow it down to favorites of more than a field goal like Seattle is tonight, the results are even more lopsided.

Since 2000, there have been 13 Super Bowl favorites laying more than three points. Only two of them covered - 11-2 ATS against the chalk. One of those covers was the Steelers in a game where the officiating was atrocious. The other was Peyton Manning against Rex Grossman. This isn't that. Seven of those 13 favorites lost the game outright.

I've made money over the years fading the "better" team in the Super Bowl and taking the points. That's exactly what I'm doing tonight with a Patriots team that has proven they can beat elite defenses and a quarterback in Drake Maye who I trust more in this matchup. Take the Patriots.

This number is way too high given how elite the Patriots' run defense has been since getting Milton Williams and Robert Spillane back healthy. No running back has eclipsed 37 rushing yards against New England in the playoffs thus far. Walker is talented, but he's running into a brick wall tonight without Charbonnet to spell him.

The Seattle defense is elite across the board, but they have one glaring weakness - tight ends. In the playoffs, they've allowed Jake Tongus to go 5 for 56 and Colby Parkinson to shred them for 3 catches and 60 yards. Henry is a significantly better tight end than either of those guys, and McDaniels knows how to attack that matchup. I'm expecting a big game from Henry tonight.

Given the matchup advantage detailed above and McDaniels' track record of attacking defensive weaknesses in the red zone, Henry is a strong candidate to find the end zone. At +240, this represents solid value for a player who should see significant target volume in scoring situations.

Two elite secondaries that combined for 28 interceptions during the regular season going up against two first-time Super Bowl quarterbacks who combined to throw 23 interceptions this season. The stage is massive, the pressure is immense, and I expect at least one mistake from each QB - potentially multiple. This feels like a game where turnovers decide the outcome.

Seattle's elite pass rush is going to force Maye out of the pocket consistently throughout this game. He's a mobile quarterback who can pick up yards with his legs when the pocket breaks down. And if the Patriots win and Maye kneels it out at the end, which I fully expect, he'll only need about four actual rushing attempts to cash this. The number is too low.